UEFA Coefficient - The chase continues

As we head towards the resumption of the Russian Premier League later this week, we’re already fully immersed into the business end of the European season and once again I’m going to try and suppress some of my bubbling excitement at another sniff of an upward coefficient shift. Despite a clean sweep of exits in the Champions League prior to Christmas, Russia’s club performances in the Europa League currently have them ahead of Portugal in the race to clinch an extra European birth, something which has long been desired to meet the league’s ambition of cementing itself as one of the top leagues in UEFA.

At present Russia are afforded 5 places in European competition, 2 into the Champions League (1 via the qualifiers), with the remaining 3 making their way into the Europa League. A promotion in ranks within the UEFA coefficient (into the top 6 leagues in Europe) would generate an extra UCL birth, a second direct spot in the group phase at present. The two targets ahead of them have long been France and Portugal, with the latter currently being leapfrogged by Russia as we go into the final few months of the European calendar.

While this is all very positive news, arguably the best chance we’ve had of seeing the RPL breaking into the illustrious Top 6 leagues, what’s preventing me from celebrating just yet are the missed opportunities of the past. Going off the last few campaigns I’m subconsciously priming myself for another final stage collapse. We’re running the same course as years gone by; CSKA Moscow crashed out in bottom place in the Champions League groups stages for the fourth time in succession. It proved the final straw, as it lead to the overdue exit of Leonid Slutsky, something that can only be considered a positive sign for future European campaigns where the Army men have looked a pale imitation of the side that usually fare so well (especially in an attacking sense) domestically.

The success story instead has come through debutants and heavy underdogs Rostov, who despite the early season chaos behind the scenes and being drawn in a pretty gruelling group, won admirers aplenty with their performances and ultimate results in key matches; beating Bayern Munich in Russia, before going on to clinch the crucial point needed away in Holland against PSV to ensure passage into the Europa League. A resounding victory in the Round of 32 this last week against a growingly familiar European opponent Sparta Prague, sets up a mouthwatering tie against Manchester United in the Round of 16. Going off Rostov’s previous performances against Atletico Madrid and the aforementioned Bayern in the UCL group stages, we can go into next week with more than a little hope of an upset.

Joining them in the last 16 are Krasnodar, who themselves had to contend with their very own German giant Schalke in the UEL groups stages, finding their way past two similarly poised projects in Nice (one small victory over France in the coefficients) and Red Bull Salzburg. Overcoming Fenerbahce impressively in the knockout stages sets them up with a tie with one of the tournament favourites Celta Vigo, another great award for the fledgling Russian startup who can’t be criticised of shirking their responsibility in collecting the valuable coefficient points.

In the end we could’ve had so much more, given Russia’s star performers before the winter break, Zenit, who went through the UEL group stages with 5 wins from 6, scoring an impressive tournament high of 16 goals, couldn’t progress past the first knockout round. Another familiar foe Anderlecht, who were impressively vanquished by Rostov back in the summer in the UCL, were too good for the Russians this time around who despite a valiant return leg victory in St. Petersburg were made to pay for an awful showing in Brussels by a late away goal to swing the outcome.

So, normal service resumes then? The last two years have promised much - Zenit qualified for the UCL R16 stage last term, while Zenit again (making it to the quarters) and Dinamo (to the R16) fared handsomely in the UEL the year previous. On both occasions I talked up the chances of usurping France in the coefficients, but as we’ve seen, this year in particular with Monaco and PSG in the Champions League, the RPL remain far behind in terms of quality and now considerably in terms of coefficient points. Amidst the disappointment of seeing France disappear over the horizon, comes the ever plunging stock of the Portuguese Primeira Liga, who despite having two sides still in the Champions League knockout phases are looking to lose a European spot for the 2018/19 season.

That remains the crucial lesson when it comes to coefficient chasing - ignore the Europa League at your detriment. Having built their European pedigree in the same tournament over the last five years (Benfica - finalists in 2013 and 2014, Porto - champions in 2011, Braga - finalists in 2011, Sporting semi-finalists in 2012), ironically the shift of focus to the Champions League lately that has successfully seen them reach the top table of Europe’s premier competition over the last two years could in the end see them lose out on one of their direct UCL births.

From Russia’s perspective, while we regularly pour scorn on their Champions League exploits, be it CSKA’s frustratingly defensive setups or Zenit’s choking in the final knockout stages, the likes of Dinamo (2014), Lokomotiv (2015), Krasnodar (2015 & 2016) and Zenit (2016) in the Europa League group stages have kept the ranking points ticking along quietly in the background. If what materialises is what is expected and Russia do clinch another European competition birth, some may assume Russian football is experiencing a revival of sorts, while in reality the work that has got them here has been of the more workmanlike variety in the initial section phases.

Without making too many wild assumptions, it’s safe to say Russia are in the driving seat, this of course may change, and will ultimately come down to the plights of the clubs involved in the final 16 of each competition. Simply if Porto and Benfica exit the UCL in the coming fortnight, Russia stays on top, and with the former having a mountain to climb (2-0 down after the first leg) in Turin against Juventus and the latter holding a slim 1-0 cushion over Borussia Dortmund, heading to Germany, I remain positive that neither Krasnodar nor Rostov need to pull a rabbit out the hat.

Going forward, with the coefficient taking into account the last 5 seasons of European football, Russia again look in pole position, having beaten Portugal’s average in each of the last 4 campaigns. The advantages of such a turnaround in fortunes is massive for a leagues future goals going forward. An extra UCL spot, allows greater exposure and extra security in terms of planning, which in turn can lead to targeted investment. 

The element of concern surrounds UEFA’s plans to rework the Champions League format, having disclosed last summer that the top four association nations will be granted 4 guaranteed Champions League group stage births. How this impacts on associations down the line (Russia included) is yet to be seen, likely to have a greater effect on the qualifying stages of the tournament rather than those passing straight through to the group stages. The key if Russia does see their number increase however is to not let it slip, to push forward and remember how you got here. Take your eye off the Europa League ball at your peril, Russia will still need to progress well in this competition if they wish to keep tabs with the European elite..

Russia's three team UCL dream

It’s that time of the year again; where Russian football fans are forgiven for concerning themselves more with the number crunching off the field rather than the return of their domestic league after the winter break. The RPL may only have returned a few days ago, but attention turns, all be it briefly to the real missed opportunity for Russian sides over the last few years, in the form of European football progression.

I spoke optimistically of Russia’s chances to overcome France in the UEFA coefficients last year going into the knockout phases. In the end it was a long shot, and having to rely on a number of your rivals slipping up, yet alone the erratic nature of Russian clubs fortunes in a post-winter European run in, the opportunity inevitably passed by. As we stand Russia are awarded 5 teams to qualify for European competition, including only 1 direct progression into the Champions League and one playoff birth. The ongoing ambition is to move up the confederation's rankings and secure a well-converted second group stage birth, leading to potentially three UCL qualified Russian teams.

The reason why I’m invigorated to write this once more, on the eve of potentially Russia’s last showing in Europe this season, is that despite saying it year on year it’s a much more realistic goal this year this time around, we’re edging closer for sure. This time around it’s Portugal that’s directly in the firing line, yet France in the end could also be usurped, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves just yet. Overcoming either of these nations would mean the RPL gaining another direct Group Stage ticket into the Champions League, granting the league not only a greater footing in Europe, but also widen the market to those such as the growing Krasnodar who have narrowly missed out on league qualification for the top European competition most recently.

As it stands Portugal are holding a small lead (0.8 of a UEFA coefficient point) over Russia with two teams to play, France are a further point ahead but like Russia only have one team left in the competition. In simple terms, a victory alongside progression to the next round of the tournament should garner just under a point, thus a positive result this week should put Russia in the driving seat to move up. Once again RPL’s sole lightning rod Zenit are left to blaze the trail for others to succeed. It was similar last season, as they progressed to the quarters to ultimately fall to champions Sevilla in the Europa League, this time however Zenit bucked up their form from the start and are quite handily placed this time in the UCL.

Blistering through their group Zenit illustrated what quality Russian football on their day can have against the rest of Europe. This wasn’t fixed to the Champions League, as Krasnodar and Lokomotiv Moscow overcame European heavyweights such as Borussia Dortmund and Sporting CP respectively (the latter could prove the most influential on both sides of the coin come the end of the season) in the UEL. However, it’s been the start of the knockout phases that has once again seen RPL clubs run into difficulty.

By the time the RPL returned last weekend from winter hibernation, three months had passed without competitive football, not ideal for the likes of Krasnodar and Loko who’s Round of 32 double headers against Sparta Prague and Fenerbahce were scheduled in before their domestic return. Subsequently, despite looking favourites on paper, both sides crumbled rather spectacularly. Zenit, fortunate in the fact that UCL legs are separated by four weeks at least go into their second leg on Wednesday with at least one league match in their legs.

They go into the match with the stakes raised that much further, given they’re the final RPL team left in Europe, but most pertinently the nationality of their opposition. Portuguese giants Benfica are one of the two Portuguese sides left in Europe, which their domestic league knows all too well, a safe navigation through to the UCL quarters will guarantee them their current allocation going into another season. If not and Zenit do squeeze through, the balls are back in the air and their immediate future could lie in the hands of their other hope SC Braga, who despite being drawn in a moderately favourable Round of 16 UEL tie with Fenerbache, have arguably gone further than many had thought possible of them this season.

If we allow ourselves to look even higher, France’s sole representative left in Europe is the resource-plenty PSG, who’ve been isolated by the likes of Saint-Etienne and Marseille after they succumbed to the same UEL knockout fate as their Russian counterparts earlier this month. PSG have the greater personnel that’s for sure, but the stronger challenge, in English champions Chelsea who are regaining some of their title winning form at the best possible time. They do however hold a narrow lead, but it’s far from a certainty of how this’ll play out.

As I stray to consider the implications of rivals’ results, I remind myself that the top priority remains Zenit’s own result. All these musings pale into insignificance if Zenit fail to overturn a 0-1 deficit from the first leg in Portugal. From the first tie, Zenit looked competent but little more, Benfica much of the same, but crucially they found the killer late breakthrough and avoided conceding the dreaded away goal. Saturday’s goalless draw in Krasnodar, wouldn’t have been what either side needed in terms of their domestic campaign, but the extra match experience to shake off the rust can give Zenit at least some greater confidence that they can avoid the winter-break return hoodoo. It might not often happen, but the whole of Russian football will be, (at least they should be) cheering on Zenit on Wednesday which has more up for grabs than can initially be seen.

European football; Russia's ongoing pursuit

It’s been just over two months since UEFA's continental competitions went into winter hibernation, as we now remerge in the knockout stages with plenty to be won and lost both on and off the field. Russia’s continual disappointment in UEFA’s primary competition, the Champions League (UCL) remains a stumbling block to future escalation of the domestic game. However with a reasonable set of draws ahead of them, progression through UEFA’s B tournament, the Europa League (UEL) could eventually prove more fruitful for the Russian Premier League in the long term in their quest for a third UCL qualifying spot.

The tale of the European season so far has been a predictable one from a Russian football follower’s point of view. The RPL once again set forth their two most credible candidates for European glory, reigning champions CSKA Moscow and the super-rich Zenit St. Petersburg. As was the case last term CSKA crashed out in an arguably stronger “group of death” only showing some fruitless resilience which in the end couldn’t save them from bottom place. Zenit’s campaign mirrored their previous encounters, being placed in a pretty low key group with a bunch of similarly matched teams. Unlike last term where they scraped through without ever impressing, they got what they deserved and narrowly dropped out into the UEL thanks to a consolation third placed finish.

While Zenit choked under the pressure in a final “shoot-out” match against eventual progress’s Monaco, they at least looked to control some of their encounters. CSKA on the other hand, continually looked a pale relation to their St. Petersburg counterparts despite having the upper hand over them in the league standings the season previous. Ultra defensive tactics, aiming to snatch teams on the break were easily read and combated against routinely until CSKA were forced into a change of ethos mid-way through the campaign to delay their impending group exit. While it was only a mere spark that proved too little too late, it encourages slight hope going forward that they’ve finally awoken from their European slumber.

Europa League wise; Russia’s smaller sides have often progressed well in the group stage. Usual lightning rod Rubin Kazan failed to qualify for the first time in years so it was up to some relatively new names to take on the baton. Despite some nice performances here and there Krasnodar crashed out in an incredibly tough group but will have gained crucial experience for future European pursuits. Their efforts were even greater given the disappoint felt by fellow Russians; Rostov and Spartak Moscow who dropped out in the preliminary rounds. Rostov could’ve be forgiven, going into their debut season after surprisingly claiming the Russian Cup title last term, however it was yet another worryingly early exit for Spartak.

So, is all hope lost? Not necessarily, given the outstanding display from Dinamo Moscow. Russia always seem to produce at least one side that can run away with things in the group stage; given previous successes from Rubin and Anzhi, Dinamo took it upon themselves to resurrect Russia’s European season. Six wins from six proved dominant, including three back to back 1-0 away victories, one being over European regulars PSV Eindhoven. The true test awaits them in the knockout stages which will ask how far their inclusion can go as they are joined by Zenit in the round of 32.

Firstly it’s to be said they’ve both drawn tough but relatively favourable ties, after both were seeded in the draw, meaning that they will both have the second leg of the tie back in Russia. Zenit will travel to an already Dinamo-conquoured PSV, while Dinamo visit Belgian champions Anderlecht. Both opposition are worthy European campaigners who on their day are possible of decent performances, however recent form should suggest that the RPL outfits have it in them to come out on top.

Europa League progression of course isn’t the glamour ticket for any Russian side, spearheaded by owners attempting to make a dent in Champions League. But the further Zenit and Dinamo progress in this year’s competition, the further the RPL can possibly expand its presence in UEFA’s premier competition.

This season was billed as the year that could see the breakthrough of Russian football on the modern stage. Currently lying in 7th place in the UEFA league coefficients, the RPL had their sights set on dethroning France’s Ligue 1 ahead of them, currently in possession of the well coveted 3rd Champions League qualifying spot. A better performance across the two tournaments would’ve almost assured the RPL of that 6th place, but as you can expect it is now looking more and more unlikely as the match days pass.

It’s still doable, but of course relies on France’s remaining representatives in the UCL (PSG & Monaco) and the UEL (Guingamp) slipping up given their tough draws in the knockout phases. An early exit coupled with a finals run for one, or a solid few round progressions for both RPL representatives could swing the balance, but I speak as an optimist and am already readying myself for disappointment again.

The fact that we are even considering the RPL at a higher level than France’s Ligue 1 would seem preposterous to regular Euopean football followers. However, the case is despite Russia’s seemingly miserable few years in European football, they somehow keep racking up the coefficient points. The prospects on the face of it could turn more favourable since Zenit are now coached by a famously pro-UEL coach in Andreas Villas Boas who has won the title with Porto and gone against the media and national perception to take Tottenham Hotspur far in the competition. Alongside them, a currently unbeaten Dinamo have a greater structure and deeper squad available to them than Rubin or Anzhi ever had, and could prove to be a dangerous dark horse if they progress to the latter stages.

The one factor that will always go against them, is the lack of competitive football of late. Russia is still on its winter break, with two weeks left to run until the domestic season gets going again. By this point, Russia’s participation in Europe may have ended with another season passing in a blink of an eye. While this year looks far from likely, next year will again bring forward new hope that they can clinch another UCL spot as the downturn of Portuguese football comes into view. As Gazprom continues to fuel the UCL cause, their beloved Zenit fall by the wayside. Progression in their subsequent UEL campaign could very well be more profitable than they had once thought.