It’s that time of the year again; where Russian football fans are forgiven for concerning themselves more with the number crunching off the field rather than the return of their domestic league after the winter break. The RPL may only have returned a few days ago, but attention turns, all be it briefly to the real missed opportunity for Russian sides over the last few years, in the form of European football progression.
I spoke optimistically of Russia’s chances to overcome France in the UEFA coefficients last year going into the knockout phases. In the end it was a long shot, and having to rely on a number of your rivals slipping up, yet alone the erratic nature of Russian clubs fortunes in a post-winter European run in, the opportunity inevitably passed by. As we stand Russia are awarded 5 teams to qualify for European competition, including only 1 direct progression into the Champions League and one playoff birth. The ongoing ambition is to move up the confederation's rankings and secure a well-converted second group stage birth, leading to potentially three UCL qualified Russian teams.
The reason why I’m invigorated to write this once more, on the eve of potentially Russia’s last showing in Europe this season, is that despite saying it year on year it’s a much more realistic goal this year this time around, we’re edging closer for sure. This time around it’s Portugal that’s directly in the firing line, yet France in the end could also be usurped, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves just yet. Overcoming either of these nations would mean the RPL gaining another direct Group Stage ticket into the Champions League, granting the league not only a greater footing in Europe, but also widen the market to those such as the growing Krasnodar who have narrowly missed out on league qualification for the top European competition most recently.
As it stands Portugal are holding a small lead (0.8 of a UEFA coefficient point) over Russia with two teams to play, France are a further point ahead but like Russia only have one team left in the competition. In simple terms, a victory alongside progression to the next round of the tournament should garner just under a point, thus a positive result this week should put Russia in the driving seat to move up. Once again RPL’s sole lightning rod Zenit are left to blaze the trail for others to succeed. It was similar last season, as they progressed to the quarters to ultimately fall to champions Sevilla in the Europa League, this time however Zenit bucked up their form from the start and are quite handily placed this time in the UCL.
Blistering through their group Zenit illustrated what quality Russian football on their day can have against the rest of Europe. This wasn’t fixed to the Champions League, as Krasnodar and Lokomotiv Moscow overcame European heavyweights such as Borussia Dortmund and Sporting CP respectively (the latter could prove the most influential on both sides of the coin come the end of the season) in the UEL. However, it’s been the start of the knockout phases that has once again seen RPL clubs run into difficulty.
By the time the RPL returned last weekend from winter hibernation, three months had passed without competitive football, not ideal for the likes of Krasnodar and Loko who’s Round of 32 double headers against Sparta Prague and Fenerbahce were scheduled in before their domestic return. Subsequently, despite looking favourites on paper, both sides crumbled rather spectacularly. Zenit, fortunate in the fact that UCL legs are separated by four weeks at least go into their second leg on Wednesday with at least one league match in their legs.
They go into the match with the stakes raised that much further, given they’re the final RPL team left in Europe, but most pertinently the nationality of their opposition. Portuguese giants Benfica are one of the two Portuguese sides left in Europe, which their domestic league knows all too well, a safe navigation through to the UCL quarters will guarantee them their current allocation going into another season. If not and Zenit do squeeze through, the balls are back in the air and their immediate future could lie in the hands of their other hope SC Braga, who despite being drawn in a moderately favourable Round of 16 UEL tie with Fenerbache, have arguably gone further than many had thought possible of them this season.
If we allow ourselves to look even higher, France’s sole representative left in Europe is the resource-plenty PSG, who’ve been isolated by the likes of Saint-Etienne and Marseille after they succumbed to the same UEL knockout fate as their Russian counterparts earlier this month. PSG have the greater personnel that’s for sure, but the stronger challenge, in English champions Chelsea who are regaining some of their title winning form at the best possible time. They do however hold a narrow lead, but it’s far from a certainty of how this’ll play out.
As I stray to consider the implications of rivals’ results, I remind myself that the top priority remains Zenit’s own result. All these musings pale into insignificance if Zenit fail to overturn a 0-1 deficit from the first leg in Portugal. From the first tie, Zenit looked competent but little more, Benfica much of the same, but crucially they found the killer late breakthrough and avoided conceding the dreaded away goal. Saturday’s goalless draw in Krasnodar, wouldn’t have been what either side needed in terms of their domestic campaign, but the extra match experience to shake off the rust can give Zenit at least some greater confidence that they can avoid the winter-break return hoodoo. It might not often happen, but the whole of Russian football will be, (at least they should be) cheering on Zenit on Wednesday which has more up for grabs than can initially be seen.
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