VAR: The case against video assistance in football

The future seems inevitable; video technology is set to play an integral part in football for years to come. FIFA have announced the roll-out of their Virtual Assistant Referee (VAR) system at next year's World Cup in Russia, off the back of a trial run at this summer’s Confederations Cup. The testing process has been going on behind the scenes for some time now, but over the last 6 months it’s fully taken flight. A version of which had been trialed at December’s Club World Cup, alongside one off friendly internationals, before Australia became the first “beneficiaries” of the new technology for the latter part of their domestic league program.

With a number of leagues queuing up for the privilege, the German Bundesliga, Saudi Pro League and Major League Soccer will all adopt the system later this year, the feeling is broadly positive for the technology, coming off the back of the highly successful Goal Line Technology (GLT) brought in across many leagues and tournaments, including the English Premier League, 2014’s World Cup and this year’s UEFA Champions League final.

The VAR system clearly differs however from GLT, as it involves less defined decisions, made by a human watching a screen, rather than a black or white decision determining whether a ball has crossed the line or not. The VAR system, which has gone through many trials with different implementations has been trimmed down to exclusively assess the following criteria; 1. Goals, 2. Penalty decisions, 3. Red card incidents & 4. Mistaken identity..

Each criteria (less so to a degree on the final point) has an element of opinion based to it, demonstrated in almost every decision its deployed, which has left me hesitant to view this system as the right direction for football. To my surprise I’m significantly in the minority, with a huge clamour from clubs, referees, pundits and fans for an extra pair of eyes when it comes to match defining decisions. In the short time I’ve experienced the technology through observing it at the Club World Cup and in the latter stages of the A-League, I’ve remained unconvinced that clarity can be provided on a regular basis and in some cases it can make tensions worse, with four shortcomings coming to mind when looking to implement this method going forward.

Interpretation

The area which I believe is the strongest case against VAR technology is that decisions at the end of the day are based on opinions. Even the most obvious calls are still opinions, even if they are roundly agreed with. In the initial stages of planning behind the VAR, examples of clear offsides, atrocious dives and obvious handballs will have been pointed to as the very examples why the VAR system needs to be introduced, effectively to irradiate “the howlers.”

But the VAR calls sadly can't and don’t stop there. Even in it’s infancy, the VAR got embroiled in decisions that even months after the event can be interpreted differently by different viewers. The first call made in a FIFA regulated match, at the Club World Cup between Kashima Antlers and Atletico Nacional brought up plenty of question marks. The call was made that a penalty was to be awarded to the Japanese side, despite strong suggestions that that player involved (Daigo Nishi) was offside and possibly inflicted a foul on his marker in the lead up the incident. 

Opinions were split, some pointed to a poorly implemented offside rule, as the referee interpreted that the offending player wasn’t active. Some pointed to the initial infringement that should’ve resulted in a free kick the other way (something not under the VAR remit). While some agreed with the referee, in that it was a penalty to Kashima. All opinions are valid, but the key to the matter is that the VAR’s debut decision wasn’t nearly as clear cut as FIFA would’ve hoped for.

The latest scenario occurred this last weekend in the A-League Final Series, where Sydney FC took on Perth Glory. Sydney's second goal, scored by Jordy Buijs, was initially ruled out for offside, as his colleague Bobo was adjudged to be interfering in an offside position despite not touching the ball. After a mellay of frustration and confusion, the referee went to the VAR, who overturned the decision, concluding Bobo wasn’t interfering with play. In real time, this left plenty puzzled at what had just happened, leaving two questions; what was the initial call? And why was it overturned?

The scenario was the greyest of greys which essentially came down to whether you thought the defender (Glory's Dino Djulbic) would’ve made up a distance of ground if he wasn’t impeded by the Sydney striker. The commentating team at the time thought he would have (which I agree with), ruling the final call incorrect, while back in the studio former Socceroo great Mark Bosnich took the opposite view. Either way, the initial call was far from a “howler” and questioned the legitimacy of the VAR butting in to effectively re-referee a decision, something the technology was never intended to provide.

Time delay

Probably the biggest bugbear of any technology naysayers is whether the time in which a decision takes is something that can have a detrimental affect on the match being played. The IFAB (the lawmaking body) have assured the VAR process will be swift in its action, to keep the game moving, a process that has been successfully proven by GLT. The examples that have taken place so far involving the VAR have however proved to be anything but smooth.

On a whole, a decision seems to take a minute, from incident to to decision, this was first seen in the clunky effort in Japan at the Club World Cup, where a referee used a monitor at the side of the pitch before awarding the penalty. The process has streamlined somewhat since then, with the referee keeping in touch with a fellow referee in the VAR booth via an earpiece, a change that should in effect allow for a much quicker review.

However, as was the case in the A-League’s debut VAR decision, the first of it’s kind in a top tier domestic league match; in the match between Wellington Phoenix and Sydney, the delay was illustrated to be much longer if the ball is still live. The decision, a handball by a Wellington Phoenix player in their own box was agreeable, but the conversation between referee and the VAR didn’t take place until 30 seconds had passed while the ball was still in play. This situation offers up a temporary in-play state where anything possibly can happen (ie. a goal, a red card etc.) which in the end could be upended if play is called back.

In the end nothing came of a Phoenix breakaway, but it brings into question the emotion change, as the home side went in search for a goal only to then find out they are conceding a penalty at the other end. Even if the play is dead, the seconds/minute delay to double check the findings can suck the atmosphere out of the moment, moments that define football’s worldwide popularity. Cristiano Ronaldo and Filip Holosko have both had to wait agonisingly to see if their goals have stood in the last 6 months, before half-celebrating at the end, as the news trickles through. The heart in the moment stuff that goals in this sport provides you with,will inevitably be lost in a simple 30 second delay.

Behaviour on the pitch

One thing that can’t be certain about bringing itechnology in is the long term behaviour of those in the stadium; players, referees, coaches and fans. GLT experienced little if any teething pains with this, due to it’s clear cut nature. If a player appeals, the referee can point to his watch to categorically answer his critics. With the VAR, no such certainty as I’ve discussed before can be given, which can only lead to lengthier appeals, questioning of officials and raised tensions, all adding to yet further delay in-play.

The A-League were quick to confirm their stance on this; stating that any player/coach appealing for a decision to be reviewed to the VAR would be booked, adding that the initial rounds of its implementation would largely allow players a “get out of jail” free pass as it was a new concept to get used to. However, as we all know confrontation of match officials is regularly a problem the game can’t get away from, so it begs the question if regular non-VAR decisions are regularly being allowed to be contested aggressively, what will stop players contesting to use the VAR?

The A-League elimination finals at the weekend saw multiple examples of confusion, aggravation and abuse from both sets of players pre and post the decisions being reversed. It also didn’t alleviate the pressure from the stands; Sydney FC fans, despite having two decisions reversed by the VAR in their favour, roundly booed the officials leaving the pitch at half-time. We may be going into this hoping it’ll clear up the games’ biggest talking points, but at present it seems to be creating more.

The change in behaviour stretches back from the players and coaching staff to the referees, as has already been seen. Referees in the comfort of having a second opinion in their ear have started to either play it safe or negate their duties altogether. There was an incident at the weekend where referee Peter Green pointed to his earpiece when questioned on a penalty decision, indicating “I haven’t been told it was a penalty,” effectively dodging his role to independently make the call.

How both players and referees view the game and it's decisions will also change. One of the first pieces of advice you are taught when you start to play the game is “play to the whistle”, but in a VAR world how can this still apply? In effect, if a striker sees the offside flag raised, and hears the referee's whistle, does he chance a yellow card for kicking the ball away, against the chance the VAR overturns the decision and he is allowed a shot on goal?

The same goes for the defending team, with VAR decisions now taking action, even when the whistle has blown for offside, if a defender stops as he hears the whistle, does that mean the goal can stand? There are going to be instances where the referee awards a penalty, when the play could continue to a goal scoring opportunity, only to be revoked on review; where’s the advantage there? We may get to the stage, where we regularly hear the whistle go, and play still goes on “just in case” the decision is overruled.

Just the beginning

Given the climate for continual changes to the laws of the game (cite the unnecessary amendment to kick off procedures, and the proposition of sin bins), it’s only going to be a matter of time before further technology is used. Already fans in large numbers have expressed an interest in a challenge based system, as is the case with tennis, where coaches/captains will be able to challenge calls, I’m assuming with the VAR in place, non-penalty box related action that doesn’t involve red cards.

While all in good intention initially, football isn’t the same sport tennis is. While tennis calls are done in the moment where play is stopped, these type of calls in football will demonstrably slow the game down, thus allowing a crucial tactic to kill the game dead. It’s possible to see coaches at all levels of the game, using their “challenge” to engage a timeout scenario, rather than using it purely to contest a call.

At the end of the day, the types of decision that we want clarity over, are the decisions that are the most subjective on the pitch, and in the end are the calls always going to be what we want? Former English Premier League referee Howard Webb, now playing an integral role in the implementation of the VAR in the MLS, appeared on BT Sport Score two weeks back to explain the new system, and it’s suitabilities, eventually to be introduced in England.

After a lengthy and interesting debate with ex-pros on the panel, Webb was called upon in live action to point out where the VAR would be used. It’s involvement was up for discussion quickly, as Hull City striker Omar Niasse was sent off for an overly aggressive challenge against Watford. While the panel of ex-footballers agreed in unison that the challenge shouldn't have seen a straight red. Webb concluded that the decision wouldn't have been overturned, as he wouldn’t be able exercise considerable doubt over the initial decision, to the disbelief of the studio. Ironically, two days later the FA panel overturned the red card.

These incidents are hardly reaffirming the need for video technology in football officiating. Those who back the implementation, will argue that it’s key to clean up a sport littered with missed howlers that need to bring balance back to key matches. However, I argue that bringing in the technology, will create yet another talking point when it comes to officiating, slow the game down and in the end take further attention away from the match being played.

UEFA Coefficient - The chase continues

As we head towards the resumption of the Russian Premier League later this week, we’re already fully immersed into the business end of the European season and once again I’m going to try and suppress some of my bubbling excitement at another sniff of an upward coefficient shift. Despite a clean sweep of exits in the Champions League prior to Christmas, Russia’s club performances in the Europa League currently have them ahead of Portugal in the race to clinch an extra European birth, something which has long been desired to meet the league’s ambition of cementing itself as one of the top leagues in UEFA.

At present Russia are afforded 5 places in European competition, 2 into the Champions League (1 via the qualifiers), with the remaining 3 making their way into the Europa League. A promotion in ranks within the UEFA coefficient (into the top 6 leagues in Europe) would generate an extra UCL birth, a second direct spot in the group phase at present. The two targets ahead of them have long been France and Portugal, with the latter currently being leapfrogged by Russia as we go into the final few months of the European calendar.

While this is all very positive news, arguably the best chance we’ve had of seeing the RPL breaking into the illustrious Top 6 leagues, what’s preventing me from celebrating just yet are the missed opportunities of the past. Going off the last few campaigns I’m subconsciously priming myself for another final stage collapse. We’re running the same course as years gone by; CSKA Moscow crashed out in bottom place in the Champions League groups stages for the fourth time in succession. It proved the final straw, as it lead to the overdue exit of Leonid Slutsky, something that can only be considered a positive sign for future European campaigns where the Army men have looked a pale imitation of the side that usually fare so well (especially in an attacking sense) domestically.

The success story instead has come through debutants and heavy underdogs Rostov, who despite the early season chaos behind the scenes and being drawn in a pretty gruelling group, won admirers aplenty with their performances and ultimate results in key matches; beating Bayern Munich in Russia, before going on to clinch the crucial point needed away in Holland against PSV to ensure passage into the Europa League. A resounding victory in the Round of 32 this last week against a growingly familiar European opponent Sparta Prague, sets up a mouthwatering tie against Manchester United in the Round of 16. Going off Rostov’s previous performances against Atletico Madrid and the aforementioned Bayern in the UCL group stages, we can go into next week with more than a little hope of an upset.

Joining them in the last 16 are Krasnodar, who themselves had to contend with their very own German giant Schalke in the UEL groups stages, finding their way past two similarly poised projects in Nice (one small victory over France in the coefficients) and Red Bull Salzburg. Overcoming Fenerbahce impressively in the knockout stages sets them up with a tie with one of the tournament favourites Celta Vigo, another great award for the fledgling Russian startup who can’t be criticised of shirking their responsibility in collecting the valuable coefficient points.

In the end we could’ve had so much more, given Russia’s star performers before the winter break, Zenit, who went through the UEL group stages with 5 wins from 6, scoring an impressive tournament high of 16 goals, couldn’t progress past the first knockout round. Another familiar foe Anderlecht, who were impressively vanquished by Rostov back in the summer in the UCL, were too good for the Russians this time around who despite a valiant return leg victory in St. Petersburg were made to pay for an awful showing in Brussels by a late away goal to swing the outcome.

So, normal service resumes then? The last two years have promised much - Zenit qualified for the UCL R16 stage last term, while Zenit again (making it to the quarters) and Dinamo (to the R16) fared handsomely in the UEL the year previous. On both occasions I talked up the chances of usurping France in the coefficients, but as we’ve seen, this year in particular with Monaco and PSG in the Champions League, the RPL remain far behind in terms of quality and now considerably in terms of coefficient points. Amidst the disappointment of seeing France disappear over the horizon, comes the ever plunging stock of the Portuguese Primeira Liga, who despite having two sides still in the Champions League knockout phases are looking to lose a European spot for the 2018/19 season.

That remains the crucial lesson when it comes to coefficient chasing - ignore the Europa League at your detriment. Having built their European pedigree in the same tournament over the last five years (Benfica - finalists in 2013 and 2014, Porto - champions in 2011, Braga - finalists in 2011, Sporting semi-finalists in 2012), ironically the shift of focus to the Champions League lately that has successfully seen them reach the top table of Europe’s premier competition over the last two years could in the end see them lose out on one of their direct UCL births.

From Russia’s perspective, while we regularly pour scorn on their Champions League exploits, be it CSKA’s frustratingly defensive setups or Zenit’s choking in the final knockout stages, the likes of Dinamo (2014), Lokomotiv (2015), Krasnodar (2015 & 2016) and Zenit (2016) in the Europa League group stages have kept the ranking points ticking along quietly in the background. If what materialises is what is expected and Russia do clinch another European competition birth, some may assume Russian football is experiencing a revival of sorts, while in reality the work that has got them here has been of the more workmanlike variety in the initial section phases.

Without making too many wild assumptions, it’s safe to say Russia are in the driving seat, this of course may change, and will ultimately come down to the plights of the clubs involved in the final 16 of each competition. Simply if Porto and Benfica exit the UCL in the coming fortnight, Russia stays on top, and with the former having a mountain to climb (2-0 down after the first leg) in Turin against Juventus and the latter holding a slim 1-0 cushion over Borussia Dortmund, heading to Germany, I remain positive that neither Krasnodar nor Rostov need to pull a rabbit out the hat.

Going forward, with the coefficient taking into account the last 5 seasons of European football, Russia again look in pole position, having beaten Portugal’s average in each of the last 4 campaigns. The advantages of such a turnaround in fortunes is massive for a leagues future goals going forward. An extra UCL spot, allows greater exposure and extra security in terms of planning, which in turn can lead to targeted investment. 

The element of concern surrounds UEFA’s plans to rework the Champions League format, having disclosed last summer that the top four association nations will be granted 4 guaranteed Champions League group stage births. How this impacts on associations down the line (Russia included) is yet to be seen, likely to have a greater effect on the qualifying stages of the tournament rather than those passing straight through to the group stages. The key if Russia does see their number increase however is to not let it slip, to push forward and remember how you got here. Take your eye off the Europa League ball at your peril, Russia will still need to progress well in this competition if they wish to keep tabs with the European elite..

Can Jeonbuk break Asia's Club World Cup hoodoo?

The Club World Cup kicks off tomorrow in typically illusive fashion. I almost feel ashamed it’s crept up on me so quickly, yet the marketing for the competition remains low key to say the least. Considering the magnitude that should come with the tag of “World Champions”, FIFA have only really started pushing their highest club accolade in the last week, previously choosing to focus on their new “Best 11” awards series, which narrowly but predictably focuses solely on player’s plying their trade in Europe.

That has long been the issue with the Club World Cup, it doesn’t interest Europe. Its timing is terrible; the tournament kicks off before a European mid-week slot has concluded, it runs through a period where the majority of leagues are still playing competitive league football, but most pertinently the award doesn’t grant the current European champions any extra credibility back home.

Europe has won 8 out of the last 9 competitions, not at a canter by any means, and in most cases they’ve merely strolled through the two matches needed to ensure the title. The only defeat, Chelsea’s to Corinthians in 2012, was met with little criticism given its lack of profile back in Europe. Chelsea could return home ahead of more important matters being their league form, which the whole fan base were more concerned about, without a single eye brow raised across the continent.

For the rest of the world this instead is seen as the key opportunity to test their mettle with the very best, an actual attempt to clinch a sought after global accolade. Within Asia this remains the case. The timing of the tournament is ideally placed for them given the AFC Champions League final was only contested two weeks ago. This year’s champions Jeonbuk Motors, have the run of form, no domestic distraction and the incentive to contest for the trophy.

The gulf in class between Asia and Europe, let alone anyone else and Europe, makes a triumph extremely unlikely however. Even if they were able to make it through, to say the final (something that hasn’t ever happened in the tournament's 16 year history), by beating their European counterparts, little would be made of the achievement in the West. In reality, in this sort of scenario, the European side (Real Madrid) would be seen to have played in 2nd gear, to have put less effort in than necessary, and to be honest that would likely be true.

At the beginning of the year, the Chinese Super League ramped up spending for another transfer window in succession that finally demanded the attention of Europe. The signings were grander than ever before, while players were being swayed in their peak (rather than at the end) of their careers from leading European clubs and no less lucrative deals to ply their trade in a league that continues to be criticised as being below par.

This view is generally accurate, as long as you're comparing par to the standard of a Top 5 European league, the CSL has a long way to go, but with spending set to increase again this year the gap will close, and the question is what will be the yard stick used to plot this decreasing divide? The Club World Cup, at present, if not in the long term with reported plans to create a global Champions League type of format, is the only recognisable “semi-competitive” environment to test clubs against one another from different continents.

Since the increased awareness of Chinese football, with the inevitable scepticism and ignorant slating that comes from the Western media towards this, I rooted for the likes of Guangzhou Evergrande and Jiangsu Suning in this year’s Asian Champions League, to clinch the trophy and set up the intercontinental end of year Battle Royale I’d hope for in Japan this week. I went too far ahead of myself at the prospect, we’re a long way from China competing with Europe, this can be illustrated by both side’s stunted progress in even their initial continental challenge. A football superpower isn't created overnight.

Attention switches to personnel, namely Asia’s leading light in Omar Abdulrahman. Clearly a talent that has outgrown his continent, ready for the test that Europe can offer him. The stumbling block in his way seems to be trust, he’s never going to have Barcelona, Real Madrid or Manchester United come in for him, on the wages he desires, with a first team fast track written into his contract. His nationality stops this to a degree; however talented an Emirati player is, a so called big club isn’t going to roll out anything more than a short term contract on modest wages.

In this case a Neymar-esc shop window at the Club World Cup could be hoped for. When Barcelona cruised past Santos in 2011 to seal their CWC title, Neymar for the most part was a mere spectator, but it was at least a chance for clubs to run the rule over a player against top class opposition. I would never expect Abdulrahman or Al Ain to challenge the likes of Real Madrid, but it could potentially be a bridging opportunity to generate interest in a move.

In the end of course football is played on the pitch by a team of 11 men, merely money thrown in from China or a one man magician in the shape of Abdulrahman is no match for the best all-round team in Asia at the moment, being Jeonbuk Motors. Functional, over any real wow factor, no big names (outside East Asia anyway), but the best unit of the year, the most worthy candidate to take on the rest of the world.

Their draw is tough, they’ve been paired with the CONCACAF champions America of Mexico in the quarter-finals, a hurdle where Asia representation has fallen twice over the last four years. On the other side, being drawn against either the African or Oceania champions has proved an easier route in the past, while aside to Guangzhou last year (which conveniently was against America also), Asia have usually been one step behind their North American equivalent.

It would however set up the glamour tie that all Asia wants; an encounter with UEFA Champions League winners Real Madrid. Putting aside the fact we won’t have the chance of an intriguing battle of new money vs. old money, or Amoory vs. CR7, Jeonbuk v Real still offers something, if not too much promise. Until one of these matches, however fortunately it may come, falls for the underdogs, I think we’ll continually hear snobbery at the culmination of the end of year showpiece, which is continually ignored across Europe. I’ll be left with hope though, however small, that this could this be the year Asia makes it's way to the final.

Russia's three team UCL dream

It’s that time of the year again; where Russian football fans are forgiven for concerning themselves more with the number crunching off the field rather than the return of their domestic league after the winter break. The RPL may only have returned a few days ago, but attention turns, all be it briefly to the real missed opportunity for Russian sides over the last few years, in the form of European football progression.

I spoke optimistically of Russia’s chances to overcome France in the UEFA coefficients last year going into the knockout phases. In the end it was a long shot, and having to rely on a number of your rivals slipping up, yet alone the erratic nature of Russian clubs fortunes in a post-winter European run in, the opportunity inevitably passed by. As we stand Russia are awarded 5 teams to qualify for European competition, including only 1 direct progression into the Champions League and one playoff birth. The ongoing ambition is to move up the confederation's rankings and secure a well-converted second group stage birth, leading to potentially three UCL qualified Russian teams.

The reason why I’m invigorated to write this once more, on the eve of potentially Russia’s last showing in Europe this season, is that despite saying it year on year it’s a much more realistic goal this year this time around, we’re edging closer for sure. This time around it’s Portugal that’s directly in the firing line, yet France in the end could also be usurped, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves just yet. Overcoming either of these nations would mean the RPL gaining another direct Group Stage ticket into the Champions League, granting the league not only a greater footing in Europe, but also widen the market to those such as the growing Krasnodar who have narrowly missed out on league qualification for the top European competition most recently.

As it stands Portugal are holding a small lead (0.8 of a UEFA coefficient point) over Russia with two teams to play, France are a further point ahead but like Russia only have one team left in the competition. In simple terms, a victory alongside progression to the next round of the tournament should garner just under a point, thus a positive result this week should put Russia in the driving seat to move up. Once again RPL’s sole lightning rod Zenit are left to blaze the trail for others to succeed. It was similar last season, as they progressed to the quarters to ultimately fall to champions Sevilla in the Europa League, this time however Zenit bucked up their form from the start and are quite handily placed this time in the UCL.

Blistering through their group Zenit illustrated what quality Russian football on their day can have against the rest of Europe. This wasn’t fixed to the Champions League, as Krasnodar and Lokomotiv Moscow overcame European heavyweights such as Borussia Dortmund and Sporting CP respectively (the latter could prove the most influential on both sides of the coin come the end of the season) in the UEL. However, it’s been the start of the knockout phases that has once again seen RPL clubs run into difficulty.

By the time the RPL returned last weekend from winter hibernation, three months had passed without competitive football, not ideal for the likes of Krasnodar and Loko who’s Round of 32 double headers against Sparta Prague and Fenerbahce were scheduled in before their domestic return. Subsequently, despite looking favourites on paper, both sides crumbled rather spectacularly. Zenit, fortunate in the fact that UCL legs are separated by four weeks at least go into their second leg on Wednesday with at least one league match in their legs.

They go into the match with the stakes raised that much further, given they’re the final RPL team left in Europe, but most pertinently the nationality of their opposition. Portuguese giants Benfica are one of the two Portuguese sides left in Europe, which their domestic league knows all too well, a safe navigation through to the UCL quarters will guarantee them their current allocation going into another season. If not and Zenit do squeeze through, the balls are back in the air and their immediate future could lie in the hands of their other hope SC Braga, who despite being drawn in a moderately favourable Round of 16 UEL tie with Fenerbache, have arguably gone further than many had thought possible of them this season.

If we allow ourselves to look even higher, France’s sole representative left in Europe is the resource-plenty PSG, who’ve been isolated by the likes of Saint-Etienne and Marseille after they succumbed to the same UEL knockout fate as their Russian counterparts earlier this month. PSG have the greater personnel that’s for sure, but the stronger challenge, in English champions Chelsea who are regaining some of their title winning form at the best possible time. They do however hold a narrow lead, but it’s far from a certainty of how this’ll play out.

As I stray to consider the implications of rivals’ results, I remind myself that the top priority remains Zenit’s own result. All these musings pale into insignificance if Zenit fail to overturn a 0-1 deficit from the first leg in Portugal. From the first tie, Zenit looked competent but little more, Benfica much of the same, but crucially they found the killer late breakthrough and avoided conceding the dreaded away goal. Saturday’s goalless draw in Krasnodar, wouldn’t have been what either side needed in terms of their domestic campaign, but the extra match experience to shake off the rust can give Zenit at least some greater confidence that they can avoid the winter-break return hoodoo. It might not often happen, but the whole of Russian football will be, (at least they should be) cheering on Zenit on Wednesday which has more up for grabs than can initially be seen.

European football; Russia's ongoing pursuit

It’s been just over two months since UEFA's continental competitions went into winter hibernation, as we now remerge in the knockout stages with plenty to be won and lost both on and off the field. Russia’s continual disappointment in UEFA’s primary competition, the Champions League (UCL) remains a stumbling block to future escalation of the domestic game. However with a reasonable set of draws ahead of them, progression through UEFA’s B tournament, the Europa League (UEL) could eventually prove more fruitful for the Russian Premier League in the long term in their quest for a third UCL qualifying spot.

The tale of the European season so far has been a predictable one from a Russian football follower’s point of view. The RPL once again set forth their two most credible candidates for European glory, reigning champions CSKA Moscow and the super-rich Zenit St. Petersburg. As was the case last term CSKA crashed out in an arguably stronger “group of death” only showing some fruitless resilience which in the end couldn’t save them from bottom place. Zenit’s campaign mirrored their previous encounters, being placed in a pretty low key group with a bunch of similarly matched teams. Unlike last term where they scraped through without ever impressing, they got what they deserved and narrowly dropped out into the UEL thanks to a consolation third placed finish.

While Zenit choked under the pressure in a final “shoot-out” match against eventual progress’s Monaco, they at least looked to control some of their encounters. CSKA on the other hand, continually looked a pale relation to their St. Petersburg counterparts despite having the upper hand over them in the league standings the season previous. Ultra defensive tactics, aiming to snatch teams on the break were easily read and combated against routinely until CSKA were forced into a change of ethos mid-way through the campaign to delay their impending group exit. While it was only a mere spark that proved too little too late, it encourages slight hope going forward that they’ve finally awoken from their European slumber.

Europa League wise; Russia’s smaller sides have often progressed well in the group stage. Usual lightning rod Rubin Kazan failed to qualify for the first time in years so it was up to some relatively new names to take on the baton. Despite some nice performances here and there Krasnodar crashed out in an incredibly tough group but will have gained crucial experience for future European pursuits. Their efforts were even greater given the disappoint felt by fellow Russians; Rostov and Spartak Moscow who dropped out in the preliminary rounds. Rostov could’ve be forgiven, going into their debut season after surprisingly claiming the Russian Cup title last term, however it was yet another worryingly early exit for Spartak.

So, is all hope lost? Not necessarily, given the outstanding display from Dinamo Moscow. Russia always seem to produce at least one side that can run away with things in the group stage; given previous successes from Rubin and Anzhi, Dinamo took it upon themselves to resurrect Russia’s European season. Six wins from six proved dominant, including three back to back 1-0 away victories, one being over European regulars PSV Eindhoven. The true test awaits them in the knockout stages which will ask how far their inclusion can go as they are joined by Zenit in the round of 32.

Firstly it’s to be said they’ve both drawn tough but relatively favourable ties, after both were seeded in the draw, meaning that they will both have the second leg of the tie back in Russia. Zenit will travel to an already Dinamo-conquoured PSV, while Dinamo visit Belgian champions Anderlecht. Both opposition are worthy European campaigners who on their day are possible of decent performances, however recent form should suggest that the RPL outfits have it in them to come out on top.

Europa League progression of course isn’t the glamour ticket for any Russian side, spearheaded by owners attempting to make a dent in Champions League. But the further Zenit and Dinamo progress in this year’s competition, the further the RPL can possibly expand its presence in UEFA’s premier competition.

This season was billed as the year that could see the breakthrough of Russian football on the modern stage. Currently lying in 7th place in the UEFA league coefficients, the RPL had their sights set on dethroning France’s Ligue 1 ahead of them, currently in possession of the well coveted 3rd Champions League qualifying spot. A better performance across the two tournaments would’ve almost assured the RPL of that 6th place, but as you can expect it is now looking more and more unlikely as the match days pass.

It’s still doable, but of course relies on France’s remaining representatives in the UCL (PSG & Monaco) and the UEL (Guingamp) slipping up given their tough draws in the knockout phases. An early exit coupled with a finals run for one, or a solid few round progressions for both RPL representatives could swing the balance, but I speak as an optimist and am already readying myself for disappointment again.

The fact that we are even considering the RPL at a higher level than France’s Ligue 1 would seem preposterous to regular Euopean football followers. However, the case is despite Russia’s seemingly miserable few years in European football, they somehow keep racking up the coefficient points. The prospects on the face of it could turn more favourable since Zenit are now coached by a famously pro-UEL coach in Andreas Villas Boas who has won the title with Porto and gone against the media and national perception to take Tottenham Hotspur far in the competition. Alongside them, a currently unbeaten Dinamo have a greater structure and deeper squad available to them than Rubin or Anzhi ever had, and could prove to be a dangerous dark horse if they progress to the latter stages.

The one factor that will always go against them, is the lack of competitive football of late. Russia is still on its winter break, with two weeks left to run until the domestic season gets going again. By this point, Russia’s participation in Europe may have ended with another season passing in a blink of an eye. While this year looks far from likely, next year will again bring forward new hope that they can clinch another UCL spot as the downturn of Portuguese football comes into view. As Gazprom continues to fuel the UCL cause, their beloved Zenit fall by the wayside. Progression in their subsequent UEL campaign could very well be more profitable than they had once thought.