AFC Champions League Preview (The West - 2016)

Tuesday marks the return of the AFC Champions League group stage, some 3 months since Guangzhou Evergrande lifted last year’s trophy in late November. The Chinese giants’ victory continues to reaffirm the trend of East Asian domination, clinching the region's third trophy in a row, and 4th out of the last 5 attempts. The question remains, after a busy off season in China, are the West in threat of being left behind?

Many aspects suggest they will. Spending power for one is starting to become a sore point; despite the vast amounts of wealth being utilised in the Gulf, West Asian leagues such as the Qatar Stars League and the Arabian Gulf League’s recent spending has looked mediocre in comparison to their Eastern neighbours. The “big” name signings in January, (albeit the mid-season window) included many in-league trades rather than the expected plundering of Europe’s elite leagues which we’d grown accustomed to over the last 5 years. One of the few that made the headlines was Kenwyne Jones’ move to Emirati side Al-Jazira. A recognisable name but hardly of the quality to compare with the likes of Alex Teixiera and Jackson Martinez.

Those who had previously modelled themselves as “galactico” impersonations have either scaled back their spending or suffered severely on the pitch. Qatari champions Lekhwiya, often criticised locally for buying their way towards domestic and continental success have cut their budget significantly, letting go two of their most prized assets in Mohamed Muntari and Vladimir Weiss, while fellow QSL side Al Sadd, despite fielding arguably the biggest name of them all in World Cup winner Xavi Hernandez fell in the ACL playoffs.

It looks unlikely that either of the remaining QSL clubs in the competition will make a sustained push for a final birth, mainly because of their domestic form. Lekhwiya alongside El Jaish, who qualified via the playoffs are already a clear distance behind surprise package Al Rayyan domestically, and will now look to reengineer some form ahead of the ACL.

There lies one issue for the West; the ACL calendar. It suits the majority of the East Asian participants, as it runs the same pattern set out by their domestic schedule. However, for the likes of the West (excluding the Uzbek Pro League which kicks off in March), the teams taking part often achieved their qualification almost 9 months prior when their 14/15 domestic seasons concluded in May.

The clear example of this is ACL qualified Al-Jazira from the Emirates. Second last term after a great 14/15 season, but have subsequently gone off the boil, as they struggle currently in mid-table of the Arabian Gulf League. Conversely Al-Ahli Dubai came to life in the latter part of the year, currently contesting for top spot domestically and made it all the way to the ACL final in November. Irrespective of form Ahli had no effect on their qualification for this year’s tournament after finishing way off the pace domestically back in May, consequently won’t be playing in this year’s edition.

Theoretically if to succeed you need consistency of form over a number of years rather than flash in the pan seasons, which arguably leaves many of the Saudi Pro League qualifiers with the best chance of success this year. Champions Al-Nassr alongside Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hilal were all present in the 2015 edition, and will all look to build on their foundations this year. Al-Nassr may be struggling domestically this term but have announced Raul Caneda as their new coach after sacking Fabio Cannavaro earlier this month, while Ahli’s extraordinary domestic unbeaten record that stretches back to January 2014 continues to show their consistency and resilience which at times was apparent in their ACL campaign last year.

Al-Hilal, despite missing out on the domestic title for the last couple of seasons, will once again be West Asia’s spearhead, and most likely side to make it to the ACL final. Their revamped forward line of Carlos Eduardo and Ailton Almeida now have 6 months of Middle Eastern football in them and have already shown their capabilities on the continent. This alongside the re-emerging Nasser Al-Shamrani, who’ll want to put 2015 to the back of his mind, after missing much of the calendar through injury and suspension.

As is always the case however with Saudi football, controversy on and off the field tends to make the headlines. To follow up their planned boycott of Palestine in World Cup qualification, the Saudi Football Federation have put in a bid with the AFC to move their ACL away matches in Iran to neutral venues over safety concerns. You won’t be surprised to hear that this hasn’t gone down well with Iran who hardly have a good relationship with the Kingdom already. If such a proposal is accepted, Iran have counter proposed that they’ll withdraw their clubs from the competition. The AFC have wimped out at making any further ruling until March, deferring all group matches between the two countries taking place in Iran until match day’s 5 and 6 in May.

Going into 2016, Iranian football on the pitch is hardly in a good place anyway. The league’s meagre resources continue to pale in comparison with their Gulf rivals, one comparison being the quality of overseas recruits they have; the top 12 goalscorers in the Persian Gulf Pro League are all Iranian, compare this to the Qatar Stars League and the Arabian Gulf League, where only 1 of their top 14 goal scorers is a home national, and you instantly see the differing pools of players the clubs' coaches have at their disposal.

The other problem area which in this case is shared with Qatar is the demise in form of the country’s so called bigger clubs. Iran go into the ACL for a second year running without Tehran heavyweight Esteghlal, alongside rivals Persepolis or even their best achiever of last year Naft Tehran. In their place champions Sepahan are currently sitting in mid-table domestically, Tractor Sazi who after multiple losses in the summer transfer window are languishing in 7th while Zob Ahan, arguably the form of the three, lack any recent history of continental action. After such a torrid time last year, it looks to be another struggle for the PGPL clubs in 2016.

This comes back to a desirability of consistency. Something the Uzbek Pro League can usually build upon, given their unique position within the West of currently being in their off season. Similar to the advantages felt in the East, the clubs in top form are consequently the clubs entering the ACL group stage namely champions Pakhtakor, Cup winners Nasaf Qarshi, alongside Lokomotiv Tashkent and Bunyodkor. Four sides with comparatively large amounts of experience at this level with a good base to work from given they’ve been in pre-season for a few months.

The downside for the UPFL sides is their economic climate, which remains the weakest in the region. Such a lack of resources is a clear catalyst that saw all four of their representatives exit at the group stage last time out. Twelve months down the line, you’d struggle to claim that any are in a better shape, with big names exiting regularly; (Sardar Rashidov and Egor Krimets have left for to Uzbekistan’s more affluent Asian neighbours) alongside a lack of any notable imported talent.

With a lack of money flying about, the clear policy has shifted to focus purely on youth. Bunyodkor, traditionally the big spenders of the league have drastically curtailed their spending, in place they’ve developed a set of fantastic youth talents that can rival any side in Asia. Members of the Uzbek’s U20 World Cup squad that made the quarter-finals in New Zealand last year; Khamdamov, Urinboev & Shomurodov lead the line for the Swallows, adding some unpredictability into whether they can actually step up on the continental club game as we start the ACL group phase.

The draw itself can once again be broken down into a number of inter-regional clashes between leagues rather than teams, as again only 5 countries are represented over the 4 Western groups. The annual predictability of these rounds is starting to drag but of course it’s the necessity given the considerable travel costs that are only partly covered by the confederation. The remaining certainty since qualification, that you’re guaranteed to play three from four different leagues takes a little from the excitement when the draw takes place, but there are still pockets of the scheduling that have caused some interest.

Aside from the Saudi-Iranian off the pitch tension which will be highly talked about right up until their encounters in May, it’s exciting to see Al-Ittihad return to AFC’s top competition after a year’s absence, if not for their on the pitch exploits but for their packed houses and passionate support that continue to be one of the region’s greatest selling points. The impressive form of the likes of Al-Ahli Jeddah, Al-Hilal and Al Ain will also top the bill as the must-see teams, but I’m probably not alone in feeling a little anticlimactic about this side of the draw.

We’re of course missing some big name form sides of the last six months, Al-Rayyan are 15 points clear in Qatar are absent, the top three in Iran are also, the region’s best player Xavi won’t add to his brief minutes in the competition, while the West’s best team of 2015 Al-Ahli Dubai haven’t even had the chance to qualify via the playoffs. Unless there’s a change to the running order, these gaps in form clubs qualifying is going to continue into 2017. At the end of the day, the West is playing catch up, and given the early signs from the continental draw and the activity in the January transfer window, the East look favourites once again.