Euro 2016: Slutsky's uphill task

Nearly a year ago to the day, Russia were humbled in their own backyard by Austria, leaving the Sbórnaya comfortably adrift of their rivals in the race for Euro 2016 qualification. Fast forward 12 months, considering where they were, potentially one of the darkest days in recent Russian football history, the fact I’m writing a tournament preview of this squad is something to be positive about, despite the months of general weariness that followed their qualification.

The positives to come from that Austrian defeat were quickly realised, the long overdue sacking of Fabio Capello, and the resulting appointment of current CSKA Moscow boss Leonard Slutsky were universally welcomed across Russia. Slutsky’s appointment was initially seen as a temporary fix on a job share basis, to re-stabilise the ship ahead of the Euros, and how (!) he accomplished it. 

When the national team returned to qualification in September they returned with vigor beating rivals for second spot Sweden 1-0 in Moscow before sweeping away Liechtenstein 7-0. Assurance of their qualification followed with hard fought but crucial victories over Moldova and Montenegro, Russia’s bleak situation had been turned on it's head within a matter of months.

The style of play hadn’t necessarily changed a hell of a lot, Russia were still sitting deep to compensate for an ageing backline, but with the ball they had more freedom to express themselves, in truth they looked happier to be part of the national team setup, something that hadn't been seen under Capello for a while. 

Instantly the change of management gave the side the boost the fan base craved. However, as we look back on it, a temporary boost is all that it probably was, as the same old problems inevitably rear their heads in run up to France.

The headaches that have climaxed over the last week of preparation resulting in two unfavourable friendly performances started with the initial squad selection. 

A notable caveat to this would be the miserable and lengthening casualty list which continues to plow the team. Defensive anchor Igor Denisov is the latest injury victim forced to watch from home, joining Denis Cheryshev, Alan Dzagoev, Oleg Kuzmin and Yuri Zhirkov in missing out on the squad, all of whom would’ve likely been on the plane to France, however the latter’s possible exclusion could’ve been more to do with his strained relationships with Slutsky than his general fitness.

The injury to Dzagoev, ahead of the squad announcement was seen as the team's killer blow, losing someone of such influence and ability would hurt any team. But the recent news concerning Denisov's withdrawal could possibly hit the side's fortunes even further, this time a player of less obvious technical ability, but losing someone with the grit and positioning that Denisov offers creates yet another cavernous hole within the Russian midfield.

Aside from the injuries, or extenuated from them, Russia's dearth in up and coming talent continues to be a cause for concern. Russia go into the Euros with the second oldest squad in the tournament, a squad averaging just below 30, while only one player is under 25 (CSKA's 20 year old midfielder Aleksandr Golovin). Now if a team was at its peak this would be understandable, however for a side in rebuild ahead of their home World Cup in two years time, many will rightly ask; where's the future going to come from?

It seems for now it may depend on numerous short term fixes. The last minute nationalisation of Brazilian keeper Guilherme and former Germany international Roman Neustadter has assured depth to the squad however it doesn't add any extra quality on the field as both will likely be down the pecking order next week. 

The decision to recruit from outside is even more surprising given the controversy of offering foreign players citizenship has caused before, without any positive implication to be felt in the run up to 2018.

Neustadter's inclusion initially seemed the sensible option to finally create some competition at centre back, amongst the settled but increasingly creaky CSKA Moscow pairing of Vasili Berezutski and Sergei Ignashevich. This opportunity looks now to have been lost, with the latter two commanding back-to-back starts in the last two warm up friendlies, Neustadter only used as a second half substitute. 

The defence then looks pretty settled, which Slutsky can point to as a positive, with the central duo's familiarity with keeper Igor Akinfeev behind them further underlining this. However up field, with injury and rotation coming into play, the attack looks less predictable.

Come Saturday, Russia will line up in either a 4231 or a 433 formation, the latter of which was fully utilised in the last week against Czech Republic and Serbia and looks the favourite to be rolled out again against England. 

The debate surrounding who those front three will be is turning into the most animated talking point ahead of kick off, after Slutsky rolled out the attacking trio of Kokorin-Dzyuba-Smolov from the start in both warm up tests. All three of course are more accustomed to the central striking role, and based on the last week's performances' they haven't fully embraced the current strategy of utlising them all from the start.

The shoe horning all of Russia's three strikers in the squad into the first 11, strikes some as a pursuit of fantasy football over tactical profligacy. Artem Dzyuba has had the best season of his career, notching impressive figures in Euro qualification and the Champions League, Krasnodar's Fedor Smolov was the Golden Boot winner domestically, while Aleksandr Kokorin, despite yet fulfilling his promise since his move to Zenit in February, is clearly the most likely Russian striker to turn a game with his ability. The selection headache for Slutsky of who to pick has simply been answered; select all three.

Of course selecting the best 11 players doesn't lead to the best team performance on the pitch, which one would assume would see either Dzyuba or Smolov take a place on the bench to be used as a second half substitute rather than shifted out to an unfamiliar left flank role. 

On the right side, Kokorin does have greater capability to fit the role, and with a more conventional left midfielder (most likely Oleg Shatov), Kokorin's defensive responsibility will likely be lessened.

In a usual world this would seem the logical switch, however with Denisov's last minute injury pull up and worries over Roman Shirokov lasting the whole 90 minutes, fielding all three forwards is far more than just a possibility. 

This asks further questions of Slutsky's decision to only take three strikers, while veteran Aleksandr Kerzhakov could've easily been selected as cover. Instead his ex-Zenit team mate Artur Yuspurov has become the beneficiary of Denisov's absence, jumping at the chance via a strange coincidence by which Yuspurov was staying in the same hotel as the national team on a personal holiday in Monaco last week. If anything was a mere matter of convenience, these circumstances suggest so.

Anyway I digress, and for as much as I question some of the squad selections or the team's tactics going into the tournament, the proof will inevitablely be in the pudding come Saturday's kick off. 

If England turn up and live up to their ability, Russia will struggle, while in matches against Slovakia and Wales the following week, you'd expect the fight for advancement to become more essential.

It's important to note that this will be the last month of competitive action the team will have until they host the World Cup in two years time (discounting the semi-competitive warm up that is the Confederations Cup next summer). 

Any experiment here, be it affording more time to young Golovin in the centre of midfield, easing Neustadter into the first team or trying out a new system to take forward into their preparations will prove invaluable down the line. All of this of course will play second fiddle to the pursuit of progression, as it should do, however with Slutsky's temporary spell in charge possibly coming to an end in July, you'd question if anyone has even half an eye on 2018 at this early stage.

As a Russian football fan, born and living in England, I'm wincing at thought of Kane, Vardy, Alli et al, coming up against the aged legs of Berezutski and Ignashevich. It has though been proven before that Slutsky has it in him to rile up a squad on the ropes as he did 12 months ago. I'll have that at the forefront of my mind as Saturday evening draws ever nearer.