At present Russia are afforded 5 places in European competition, 2 into the Champions League (1 via the qualifiers), with the remaining 3 making their way into the Europa League. A promotion in ranks within the UEFA coefficient (into the top 6 leagues in Europe) would generate an extra UCL birth, a second direct spot in the group phase at present. The two targets ahead of them have long been France and Portugal, with the latter currently being leapfrogged by Russia as we go into the final few months of the European calendar.
While this is all very positive news, arguably the best chance we’ve had of seeing the RPL breaking into the illustrious Top 6 leagues, what’s preventing me from celebrating just yet are the missed opportunities of the past. Going off the last few campaigns I’m subconsciously priming myself for another final stage collapse. We’re running the same course as years gone by; CSKA Moscow crashed out in bottom place in the Champions League groups stages for the fourth time in succession. It proved the final straw, as it lead to the overdue exit of Leonid Slutsky, something that can only be considered a positive sign for future European campaigns where the Army men have looked a pale imitation of the side that usually fare so well (especially in an attacking sense) domestically.
The success story instead has come through debutants and heavy underdogs Rostov, who despite the early season chaos behind the scenes and being drawn in a pretty gruelling group, won admirers aplenty with their performances and ultimate results in key matches; beating Bayern Munich in Russia, before going on to clinch the crucial point needed away in Holland against PSV to ensure passage into the Europa League. A resounding victory in the Round of 32 this last week against a growingly familiar European opponent Sparta Prague, sets up a mouthwatering tie against Manchester United in the Round of 16. Going off Rostov’s previous performances against Atletico Madrid and the aforementioned Bayern in the UCL group stages, we can go into next week with more than a little hope of an upset.
Joining them in the last 16 are Krasnodar, who themselves had to contend with their very own German giant Schalke in the UEL groups stages, finding their way past two similarly poised projects in Nice (one small victory over France in the coefficients) and Red Bull Salzburg. Overcoming Fenerbahce impressively in the knockout stages sets them up with a tie with one of the tournament favourites Celta Vigo, another great award for the fledgling Russian startup who can’t be criticised of shirking their responsibility in collecting the valuable coefficient points.
In the end we could’ve had so much more, given Russia’s star performers before the winter break, Zenit, who went through the UEL group stages with 5 wins from 6, scoring an impressive tournament high of 16 goals, couldn’t progress past the first knockout round. Another familiar foe Anderlecht, who were impressively vanquished by Rostov back in the summer in the UCL, were too good for the Russians this time around who despite a valiant return leg victory in St. Petersburg were made to pay for an awful showing in Brussels by a late away goal to swing the outcome.
So, normal service resumes then? The last two years have promised much - Zenit qualified for the UCL R16 stage last term, while Zenit again (making it to the quarters) and Dinamo (to the R16) fared handsomely in the UEL the year previous. On both occasions I talked up the chances of usurping France in the coefficients, but as we’ve seen, this year in particular with Monaco and PSG in the Champions League, the RPL remain far behind in terms of quality and now considerably in terms of coefficient points. Amidst the disappointment of seeing France disappear over the horizon, comes the ever plunging stock of the Portuguese Primeira Liga, who despite having two sides still in the Champions League knockout phases are looking to lose a European spot for the 2018/19 season.
That remains the crucial lesson when it comes to coefficient chasing - ignore the Europa League at your detriment. Having built their European pedigree in the same tournament over the last five years (Benfica - finalists in 2013 and 2014, Porto - champions in 2011, Braga - finalists in 2011, Sporting semi-finalists in 2012), ironically the shift of focus to the Champions League lately that has successfully seen them reach the top table of Europe’s premier competition over the last two years could in the end see them lose out on one of their direct UCL births.
From Russia’s perspective, while we regularly pour scorn on their Champions League exploits, be it CSKA’s frustratingly defensive setups or Zenit’s choking in the final knockout stages, the likes of Dinamo (2014), Lokomotiv (2015), Krasnodar (2015 & 2016) and Zenit (2016) in the Europa League group stages have kept the ranking points ticking along quietly in the background. If what materialises is what is expected and Russia do clinch another European competition birth, some may assume Russian football is experiencing a revival of sorts, while in reality the work that has got them here has been of the more workmanlike variety in the initial section phases.
Without making too many wild assumptions, it’s safe to say Russia are in the driving seat, this of course may change, and will ultimately come down to the plights of the clubs involved in the final 16 of each competition. Simply if Porto and Benfica exit the UCL in the coming fortnight, Russia stays on top, and with the former having a mountain to climb (2-0 down after the first leg) in Turin against Juventus and the latter holding a slim 1-0 cushion over Borussia Dortmund, heading to Germany, I remain positive that neither Krasnodar nor Rostov need to pull a rabbit out the hat.
Going forward, with the coefficient taking into account the last 5 seasons of European football, Russia again look in pole position, having beaten Portugal’s average in each of the last 4 campaigns. The advantages of such a turnaround in fortunes is massive for a leagues future goals going forward. An extra UCL spot, allows greater exposure and extra security in terms of planning, which in turn can lead to targeted investment.
The element of concern surrounds UEFA’s plans to rework the Champions League format, having disclosed last summer that the top four association nations will be granted 4 guaranteed Champions League group stage births. How this impacts on associations down the line (Russia included) is yet to be seen, likely to have a greater effect on the qualifying stages of the tournament rather than those passing straight through to the group stages. The key if Russia does see their number increase however is to not let it slip, to push forward and remember how you got here. Take your eye off the Europa League ball at your peril, Russia will still need to progress well in this competition if they wish to keep tabs with the European elite..
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